CONCERNS AND FEARS
Since the 1997 Hong Kong H5N1 outbreak took place, scientists and health experts have continuously warned of an imminent pandemic, but it was not until recently that governments around the world took the threat seriously. How dangerous could H5N1 become and what do experts foresee happening?
There is no question about it: scientists and public health experts alike are worried about the flu strain known as H5N1. Since 1997, they have watched H5N1 very carefully as it infected domestic poultry, pigs, wild birds, and people, and wondered what it would do next.
H5N1 is well known for quick mutations and the tendency to swap genes with other animal viruses. Recent examination of the virus in patients indicates that the virus is still avian in nature. However, experts do not believe this will be the case for long. In 2005, H5N1 was responsible for the deaths of thousands of wild geese in China and in Siberia. Even worse, Indonesian authorities said that several chickens on farms around Jakarta were infected with H5N1, but displayed no symptoms. If confirmed, this would make the virus increasingly difficult to track. As the number of bird infections continues to increase, the chances of human infection also increases and if the chances of human infection increase, there is a greater chance that a new subtype would emerge, one that would be able to jump from human to human. If this were to happen, the virus would be able to spread quickly and efficiently. Even worse, our immune systems will not recognize H5N1, making us even more vulnerable.
However, this is not the only scenario worrying experts. The fact that no country in the world would be ready if a pandemic were to occur has many experts alarmed. "This virus right from scratch is probably the worst influenza virus, in terms of being highly pathogenic, that I've ever seen or worked with," says renowned flu researcher Robert Webster. For several years, Webster and many experts have warned that H5N1 could start a pandemic, but their warnings fell upon deaf ears. It was not until recently that governments began taking the threat of avian flu seriously. Many countries are now scrambling to stockpile antiviral medicines and come up with a plan. Many poorer countries do not have the funds to protect themselves adequately during an epidemic, including the countries in Southeast Asia that need it most.