H5N1: NEXT GLOBAL PANDEMIC?
When it comes to avian influenza, scientists seldom agree on everything, but they agree that a pandemic is definitely imminent. It has been 38 years since the last pandemic, the Hong Kong flu in 1968, and many say the time is ripe for a new one to occur. Could H5N1 spawn the next pandemic?
Yes, there is a definite possibility that H5N1 could spawn the next pandemic. Many organizations responsible for world health, such as the CDC and WHO, have said that the upcoming pandemic may be deadlier than the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919. It is not a question of if, but when the next pandemic will occur. H5N1 possesses many qualities that make it capable of starting a pandemic; it mutates quickly and tends to acquire genes from viruses that infect other species. In addition, evidence shows that between 1997 and 2004, H5N1 strains have become more pathogenic for mammals. According to the CDC, three things must be in place for an influenza pandemic to start:
- A new influenza virus subtype
- The ability to spread easily and efficiently
- The ability to infect humans and cause serious illness
H5N1 has the first two characteristics, but it has not acquired the third quality. Tests done on two recent victims of H5N1 indicate that the virus retains the same avian genes that inhibit easy transmission of the virus from person to person, which is good news. However, H5N1 could easily gain this ability, either through antigenic shift (where human and avian viruses mix genes during co-infection of a pig or human) or by adaptive mutation (when virus gains the ability to bind to human cells after successive infection of humans.)
Because H5N1 is firmly rooted in many places in Asia, poultry and human cases alike will continue to occur and the chance that H5N1 will develop into a pandemic strain will increase. If an outbreak were to occur anywhere in the world, it would spread to many cities around the world in a matter of hours, due to jet travel. Computer simulations show that shutting down the airports would delay the arrival of the virus, but it would not stop the virus from spreading. While we cannot stop a pandemic, we can take steps to protect people from infection.